Cheer! Gujarat may get excess rain this year too
Ahmedabad: The first long range forecast for 2011 south-west monsoon season rainfall by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued on April 19 suggests below normal to normal monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole.
However, Gujarat has chances of getting another excess rain year, suggests the past data of the local weather office.
The central IMD's long range forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)).
There is very low probability for the season's rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) for the country. However, the state has chances of another year of excess rain as La Niña conditions are prevailing and in the last 50 years, the rainfall over Gujarat has been excess in 8 out of 12 La Niña years.
Dr. Kamaljit Ray, director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Gujarat, said, "As of now La Niña conditions are prevailing and are likely to continue. In view of the ENSO conditions having considerable influence over the Indian monsoon, the present conditions indicate south-west monsoon over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal. However, in the last 50 years, the rainfall over Gujarat has been excess in 8 out of 12 La Niña years and deficient in one La Nina Year -- 1999."